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No way of knowing.
No way of knowing. Snowfall can vary significantly daily, so it’s essential to look at the overall trend and not just the last few days of it. The storm track will move as time goes on, but it won’t stay exactly where it is at any given moment.
Predicting snow doesn’t work.
Predicting snowfall is a science, math problem, or computer problem. It’s not.
It’s also not a weather problem or a climate change issue—which makes it sound like it should be easy to solve! But there are lots of factors involved:
A 10-day forecast is only an estimate.
The 10-day forecast is only an estimate. It’s based on past data and is not a guarantee of the future. That said, there are certain things that we can do to help you make your best guess about how much snow will fall in New York City—and what kind of conditions you might encounter when shoveling out your driveway or sidewalk this winter.
First, don’t worry about getting caught up in hyperbolic rhetoric; these numbers are more precise than they seem at first glance! Meteorologists have improved their models by gathering more information from satellites (which help them track wind patterns). However, even today, those models still need to be 100% accurate. If you want something more concrete than “it may be cold but not too cold,” I suggest going with something like “it may be cold but not too warm.”
Not all precipitation is snow.
Rain, sleet, hail, and other precipitation can also fall. Snowfall is not the only precipitation that falls; it’s the most common type (and much more important than rain). However, snowfall is still essential to our winter weather pattern, providing us with entertainment and enjoyment.
Snowfall on a day-to-day basis can vary greatly.
Snowfall on a day-to-day basis can vary greatly. The amount of snow you get depends on many factors, including:
What matters is the overall trend and not just the last few days of it.
What matters is the overall trend and not just the last few days of it. For example, if you’re in northern New England and have been getting a fair amount of snow since November, but then all of a sudden, it stops for several weeks. You see more snow in January or February…well…that doesn’t mean that we will get more than usual during those months too! (It could happen.)
It’s also important to note that while New York City gets an average annual amount of precipitation (about 20 inches), this varies yearly, depending on how much falls during certain months. So if we get 15 inches this winter, but next year only 2 inches fall between December 21st through March 31st–the average period for most winters–then our total precipitation will have decreased by half over those three months since there wasn’t enough water coming down from above to fill up reservoirs like Lake Erie with its usual amount.
The storm track will stay somewhere else.
The storm track is a line that shows where the storm will be. It can change over time, even during the same shower!
The best way to understand how this works is with an example. If you’re looking at a map of New York City and see an arrow indicating where Hurricane Sandy will strike tomorrow afternoon, that’s your “storm track.” When we say “the” track, we mean it—two or three different ones depending on what part of town you’re in and how far inland from the coast it gets (you can also get rid of all those pesky arrows when viewing maps online). But don’t worry; just because there are multiple tracks doesn’t mean they have anything to do with each other: they represent different weather systems moving through different areas at different speeds at any given time.
You can’t predict how much snow we’ll get in NY.
You can’t predict how much snow we’ll get in NY.
This is because the weather changes so quickly, and it’s hard to predict what will happen tomorrow or next week.
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